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Fourth Quarter Preview: What to Expect for the End of 2020

Greg Lavelle • September 15, 2020

It took just under five months for it to happen. On August 17th, the S&P 500 closed at 3389.78—an all-time record. That record is also significant because it means the index officially recouped all losses from the downturn that happened in March.1
 
This year has been a rollercoaster ride for investors. The S&P 500 dropped 33.92% from February 19 to March 23 as the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. Since March 23, the index has increased 51.51%, triggering a new bull market.2
 
However, a sharp increase in the stock market doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is out of the woods. In fact, other metrics would indicate that the economy is still struggling. In the second quarter, gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 32.9%, the largest quarterly contraction on record. That contraction is more than three times the previous record—a 10% contraction in 1958.3
 
Also, not all sectors of the stock market have participated in the recovery. The increase over the last five months has been fueled by growth in the Information Technology (IT) and Consumer Discretionary sectors, each of which are up more than 23% year-to-date. However, other sectors, particularly Financials and Energy, are negative on the year. In fact, of the 11 S&P 500 Sectors, five are still negative on the year.4
 
The 4th Quarter is historically the best quarter for S&P 500 performance, with the index up an average of 3.51% from October through December over the past 30 years.5 However, 2020 is not like other years. There are factors and risks that could threaten the market’s recovery. Below are a couple things to watch as the year comes to a close:

Election

We’re only a couple months away from the election, as if 2020 needed more uncertainty. Everyone has their own preferred candidate. However, some investment managers are saying the real risk isn’t one of the candidates winning, it’s an unclear outcome.
 
Bridgewater Associates, which manages more than $140 billion, recently told clients the real risk is if there is “material concern over the legitimacy of the process.” Analysis of recent options transactions show that many investors are taking protective stances through January 2021, possibly an indication they are concerned about post-election volatility.6
 
However, UBS notes that post-election volatility is often short-lived. They point to the most recent example of an election with an unclear winner—the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. During that time, the S&P 500 fell around 6% in the weeks after the election as litigation mounted. However, those losses were erased as soon as the election reached resolution.7

COVID

Of course, the other major risk to the economy and financial markets in the fourth quarter is developments related to COVID. The pandemic is now in its seventh month. As of mid-August, the death toll in the United States exceeded 168,000, with more than 5 million confirmed cases.8
 
The development of a vaccine in the fourth quarter could deliver a boost to the economy. The government has implemented Operation Warp Speed, an initiative to deliver 300 million vaccines by January. Moderna has a vaccine in phase 3 trials, but it is uncertain whether the company will be able to meet the government’s target date.8
 
Ready to protect your portfolio from fourth quarter uncertainty? Let’s talk about it. Contact us today at Retirement Advisers.Net. We can analyze your needs and goals and implement a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.

1 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
2 https://www.google.com/search?q=INDEXSP:.INX&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowi3w8sc9YSntSWtOXmNU5eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLnYoOyeKW4uTj1c_UNDM0qi4t5FrHyePq5uEYEB1jpefpFAAAU6wGESAAAAA#scso=_iyc9X5L9Eq6E9PwPt8m4mAM1:0
3 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever
4 https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
5 https://stockanalysis.com/average-monthly-stock-returns/
6 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2020-election-wall-street-stock-market
7 https://fortune.com/2020/08/18/trump-biden-stock-market-2020-election-contested-results-what-could-happen-investors/
8 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/19/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/
 
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Using Life Insurance to Protect Your Business: Key Strategies for Business Owners

February 11, 2025
As a business owner, safeguarding your enterprise against unforeseen events is crucial for long-term success. Life insurance offers several strategies to protect your business, ensure continuity, and provide financial stability during challenging times. Two primary methods are buy-sell agreements and key person insurance. Buy-Sell Agreements A buy-sell agreement is a legally binding contract that outlines the procedure for transferring ownership if an owner departs due to death, disability, or retirement. Funding this agreement with life insurance ensures a smooth transition and financial security for the remaining owners and the departing owner's beneficiaries. Types of Buy-Sell Agreements Cross-Purchase Agreement: Each owner purchases a life insurance policy on the other owners. Upon an owner's death, the surviving owners use the policy proceeds to buy the deceased owner's share. This method is often suitable for businesses with a few owners. Entity Purchase Agreement: The business itself owns life insurance policies on each owner. If an owner passes away, the business uses the proceeds to buy back the deceased owner's share, redistributing it among the remaining owners. This approach is typically preferred for businesses with multiple owners. Key Person Insurance Key person insurance is a policy that a business takes out on essential employees whose loss could significantly impact operations. The business owns the policy, pays the premiums, and is the beneficiary. If a key person dies or becomes disabled, the policy proceeds can be used to: Cover the costs of finding and training a replacement. Offset lost revenue resulting from the key person's absence. Reassure clients, creditors, and investors of the business's stability. This strategy is vital for businesses where certain individuals are integral to success, such as top executives, lead developers, or primary sales personnel. Additional Strategies Beyond buy-sell agreements and key person insurance, consider these life insurance strategies: Collateral Assignment: Use a life insurance policy as collateral for business loans. In the event of the owner's death, the lender is paid from the policy proceeds, preventing financial strain on the business. Executive Bonus Plans: Provide key employees with life insurance policies as part of their compensation package. This not only offers them personal financial protection but also serves as an incentive for retention. Deferred Compensation Plans: Promise to pay key employees a certain amount at retirement, funded through life insurance policies. This ensures the business can meet its obligations without affecting cash flow. Implementing life insurance strategies is essential for business owners aiming to protect their enterprises from unforeseen events. Work with us to explore your life insurance options and we can help your business remain resilient and continue to thrive.

What Happens If You Outlive Your Term Life Insurance?

February 1, 2025
Term life insurance provides coverage for a specified period, such as 10, 20, or 30 years. If you outlive your term policy, the coverage ends, and no death benefit is paid to your beneficiaries. As you approach the end of your term, it's essential to evaluate your current financial situation and consider options to maintain life insurance coverage if needed. Options to Consider Annual Renewable Term: Some term policies offer an option to renew annually after the initial term expires. While this allows you to extend coverage without a medical exam, premiums typically increase each year based on your age, making it a potentially costly option over time. PROGRESSIVE.COM Policy Conversion: Term-to-Permanent Conversion: Many term policies include a conversion feature, allowing you to convert your term policy into a permanent life insurance policy, such as whole or universal life, without undergoing a medical examination. This option can provide lifelong coverage and build cash value, but premiums will be higher than those of the original term policy. NEWYORKLIFE.COM Purchasing a New Policy New Term Policy: Applying for a new term life insurance policy can be an option, especially if you're still in good health. However, premiums will be higher due to increased age, and you may need to undergo a medical exam. Permanent Life Insurance: Alternatively, you might consider purchasing a permanent life insurance policy, which provides lifelong coverage and accumulates cash value. This option is generally more expensive but offers additional benefits. Exploring Alternative Coverage: Final Expense Insurance: Designed to cover end-of-life expenses, such as funeral costs and medical bills, final expense insurance offers a smaller death benefit with more affordable premiums and may not require a medical exam. Guaranteed Universal Life Insurance: This type of policy provides coverage for a specified age (e.g., up to age 90 or 100) with lower premiums compared to whole life insurance, focusing primarily on the death benefit without significant cash value accumulation. Take Action Now As your term life insurance policy nears its expiration, assess your current financial needs and health status to determine the most suitable course of action. Consulting with an insurance professional can help you navigate your options and select the best solution to ensure continued financial protection for your loved ones.
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