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What Does the 2020 Election Mean for Your Portfolio?

Greg Lavelle • March 11, 2020

​The 2020 election cycle is in full swing. It’s primary season, which means the general election is right around the corner. Before you know it, the two major parties will have their conventions and we’ll be heading to the ballot box.
 
Of course, you may already have election fatigue. From the local level all the way up to national races, candidates are already flooding television with political ads.
 
As is the case in most presidential elections, candidates are also talking about the economy. They may make claims about what will happen in the economy if they’re elected or that the markets might decline if their opponent is elected.
 
That kind of rhetoric is common during elections, but is it accurate? Will the outcome of the election impact your portfolio? Should you worry about the election? Or perhaps even change your allocation to protect yourself. Below are a few tips to keep in mind through the rest of the election year:

Keep history in perspective. 

Often when there is one issue or story dominating the news, like the presidential election, it’s easy to focus solely on that story. It’s in the news and on social media so much that it feels like it’s the most important issue in the world.
 
However, the truth is that this country and the stock market have been through many presidential elections. In fact, in most of those years, the markets performed positively. In fact, since 1928, there have been 23 presidential elections. In 19 of those years, the S&P 500 had a positive return.1
 
In fact, in the four instances when the markets did have negative returns, there were also economic events happening that may have driven the performance. In 1932, the country was in the midst of the Great Depression. In 1940, the country was entering World War II.
 
The markets declined in 2000, which was the year George W. Bush ran against Al Gore. However, the bursting tech bubble in Silicon Valley may have had more influence on the markets than the election. Finally, in 2008, the S&P 500 also declined, but that was the year of the financial crisis.
 
The takeaway is that market declines can happen in any year. The fact that it’s an election year may cause news stories and rhetoric, but the market is likely driven by investor concerns and economic conditions.

Focus on the long-term.

Your investment strategy was likely designed for the long-term. Perhaps you’re saving for retirement or some other goal that is years or possibly even decades in the future. Over that period, you’ll likely see times of market volatility.
 
Whether it’s an election year or not, it’s always helpful to focus on the long-term during challenging periods. Market downturns happen, but they are always temporary.

There are two common types of downturns: corrections and bear markets. Corrections are losses of 10% or more. Bear markets are losses of 20% or more. As you can see in the chart below, the average correction loses around 13% and the average bear market sees a loss of around 30%.2

However, the duration of each is also important. A correction, on average, lasts around four months. After that period, there is an average four-month recovery period to recoup the losses. Bear markets last longer. They have an average duration of 13 months with a 22-month recovery period.2

Type of Correction Average Loss Avg. Duration Avg. Recovery Duration
Correction -13% 4 months 4 months
Bear Market -30% 13.2 months 22 months

​Market downturns are never pleasant, but they are temporary. Keep an eye on the long-term and stick to your strategy.

Don’t make gut decisions.

It can be easy to make a gut, impulse decision when you hear and see stressful news on a regular basis. It might be tempting to sell your investments and move to asset classes that have less risk and volatility.
 
However, a move to perceived safety could do more harm than good. The chart below shows how the average equity investor has fared compared the S&P 500 over different periods of time. As you can see, the index always wins, sometimes by a wide margin. 3

Time Period Average Equity Investor S&P 500
30-year 3.98% 10.16%
20-year 4.79% 7.68%
10-year 3.64% 6.95%
5-year 9.83% 14.66%
3-year 3.42% 8.87%

Why does this happen? Primarily because the index stays invested at all times, while the average investor is constantly moving in and out of the market based on gut decisions or attempts to avoid loss. While investors may miss some declines with this strategy, they also miss out on gains. Staying invested usually leads to better long-term performance.
 
Ready to protect your portfolio this election year? Let’s talk about it. Contact us at Retirement Advisers.Net. We can help you analyze your needs and develop a strategy. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526
2https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/whats-a-bear-market-and-how-long-do-they-usually-last-.html] 3https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-still-terrible-at-investing-annual-study-once-again-shows-2017-10-19
 
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Using Life Insurance to Protect Your Business: Key Strategies for Business Owners

February 11, 2025
As a business owner, safeguarding your enterprise against unforeseen events is crucial for long-term success. Life insurance offers several strategies to protect your business, ensure continuity, and provide financial stability during challenging times. Two primary methods are buy-sell agreements and key person insurance. Buy-Sell Agreements A buy-sell agreement is a legally binding contract that outlines the procedure for transferring ownership if an owner departs due to death, disability, or retirement. Funding this agreement with life insurance ensures a smooth transition and financial security for the remaining owners and the departing owner's beneficiaries. Types of Buy-Sell Agreements Cross-Purchase Agreement: Each owner purchases a life insurance policy on the other owners. Upon an owner's death, the surviving owners use the policy proceeds to buy the deceased owner's share. This method is often suitable for businesses with a few owners. Entity Purchase Agreement: The business itself owns life insurance policies on each owner. If an owner passes away, the business uses the proceeds to buy back the deceased owner's share, redistributing it among the remaining owners. This approach is typically preferred for businesses with multiple owners. Key Person Insurance Key person insurance is a policy that a business takes out on essential employees whose loss could significantly impact operations. The business owns the policy, pays the premiums, and is the beneficiary. If a key person dies or becomes disabled, the policy proceeds can be used to: Cover the costs of finding and training a replacement. Offset lost revenue resulting from the key person's absence. Reassure clients, creditors, and investors of the business's stability. This strategy is vital for businesses where certain individuals are integral to success, such as top executives, lead developers, or primary sales personnel. Additional Strategies Beyond buy-sell agreements and key person insurance, consider these life insurance strategies: Collateral Assignment: Use a life insurance policy as collateral for business loans. In the event of the owner's death, the lender is paid from the policy proceeds, preventing financial strain on the business. Executive Bonus Plans: Provide key employees with life insurance policies as part of their compensation package. This not only offers them personal financial protection but also serves as an incentive for retention. Deferred Compensation Plans: Promise to pay key employees a certain amount at retirement, funded through life insurance policies. This ensures the business can meet its obligations without affecting cash flow. Implementing life insurance strategies is essential for business owners aiming to protect their enterprises from unforeseen events. Work with us to explore your life insurance options and we can help your business remain resilient and continue to thrive.

What Happens If You Outlive Your Term Life Insurance?

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Term life insurance provides coverage for a specified period, such as 10, 20, or 30 years. If you outlive your term policy, the coverage ends, and no death benefit is paid to your beneficiaries. As you approach the end of your term, it's essential to evaluate your current financial situation and consider options to maintain life insurance coverage if needed. Options to Consider Annual Renewable Term: Some term policies offer an option to renew annually after the initial term expires. While this allows you to extend coverage without a medical exam, premiums typically increase each year based on your age, making it a potentially costly option over time. PROGRESSIVE.COM Policy Conversion: Term-to-Permanent Conversion: Many term policies include a conversion feature, allowing you to convert your term policy into a permanent life insurance policy, such as whole or universal life, without undergoing a medical examination. This option can provide lifelong coverage and build cash value, but premiums will be higher than those of the original term policy. NEWYORKLIFE.COM Purchasing a New Policy New Term Policy: Applying for a new term life insurance policy can be an option, especially if you're still in good health. However, premiums will be higher due to increased age, and you may need to undergo a medical exam. Permanent Life Insurance: Alternatively, you might consider purchasing a permanent life insurance policy, which provides lifelong coverage and accumulates cash value. This option is generally more expensive but offers additional benefits. Exploring Alternative Coverage: Final Expense Insurance: Designed to cover end-of-life expenses, such as funeral costs and medical bills, final expense insurance offers a smaller death benefit with more affordable premiums and may not require a medical exam. Guaranteed Universal Life Insurance: This type of policy provides coverage for a specified age (e.g., up to age 90 or 100) with lower premiums compared to whole life insurance, focusing primarily on the death benefit without significant cash value accumulation. Take Action Now As your term life insurance policy nears its expiration, assess your current financial needs and health status to determine the most suitable course of action. Consulting with an insurance professional can help you navigate your options and select the best solution to ensure continued financial protection for your loved ones.
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